Covid Big Time in Twisp - Again

[pasayten]

by Reapward » Thu Aug 05, 2021 9:05 pm

So John, you are not thinking about society as a whole. You are not thinking that you could be infecting children, now that this virus is turning its sights toward that group and they are unvaccinated. We can leave you alone, but will you leave the vaccinated alone and distance and isolate if you need to? No, you won't because you don't get it.
Every man for himself, is that it? And no man is an island.
And pardon me folks if I sound sexist, but I could change it to every person for him or herself, but I am going with the original saying.
Kinda self righteous and pleased that you came up with a fantastic solution.
Pearl Cherrington

[pasayten]

by BobMacAAM » Thu Aug 05, 2021 8:52 pm

"Here's an idea: If you want to get vaccinated and wear a mask that is your choice to make. If some of us wish to take our chances by not getting vaccinated and not wearing masks, leave us alone, that is our choice to make. If you are vaccinated and wear a mask what do you have to fear from those of us that are are not and do not? Why can you not be satisfied that you have done what you believe is the correct thing to do to protect yourselves and leave the rest of alone."
John Okoneski - Wenatchee/Mazama

AMEN

[pasayten]

by RedRonda » Thu Aug 05, 2021 7:46 pm

The big deal as I see it is that those who refuse to get vaccinated are putting every child who is not eligible to be vaccinated at risk.
Full stop.

Ronda Bradeen

[pasayten]

by Gonzo'57 » Thu Aug 05, 2021 7:24 pm

Here's an idea: If you want to get vaccinated and wear a mask that is your choice to make. If some of us wish to take our chances by not getting vaccinated and not wearing masks, leave us alone, that is our choice to make. If you are vaccinated and wear a mask what do you have to fear from those of us that are are not and do not? Why can you not be satisfied that you have done what you believe is the correct thing to do to protect yourselves and leave the rest of alone.
John Okoneski - Wenatchee/Mazama

[pasayten]

Post by alfrandell » Thu Aug 05, 2021 4:56 pm

i believe that rhonda started this thread to alert people to a new Covid wave that is doubling fast.
Shan simply used a tactic from the disinformation playbook.
nitpick, and direct the conversation away from the topic.
we say mask and distance, and shan suggests that any attempt at a face covering totally counts. also, he suggests that it is incorrect to mention a specific case of constant mask violation.
now, we are being totally kind and correct, and, covid is totally forgotten.
We are back to getting out for a beer and a burger with our friends, relatives, tourists and firefighters..
supporting our local shops......
blah blah blah.

Early predictions of the magnitude of earlier covid waves were quite accurate. you find the r value, the doubling time, and the rest follows.
This one is a little different.
we have roughly half of americans vaccinated, with more like 70% protected in Washington.
the US has 35 million infections reported, but something like a fifth to a third of americans have had a case and returned to health.
this winter, we will see how the set of vaccinated overlaps with the set of recovered.
With Delta as virulent as chicken pox, the folks that are not protected by any kind of immunity will pretty much get the delta varient in the next season or 2.

the world health organization is asking the US to give first vaccinations to those in the world that have had none, instead of giving a third booster to it's citizens.
I will get a booster without waiting for a lottery ticket, or gift certificate.
an outdoor venue would be great.
Alf Randell
electronic mail - alfrandell@gmail.com
sms text
509 341 4053

[pasayten]

by tomandmonica » Thu Aug 05, 2021 4:44 pm

Mr_Coffee is the closest thing we have to a de facto public health officer and I applaud the diligence he brings to the unpaid position.
Tom Forker
Last edited by tomandmonica on Thu Aug 05, 2021 6:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.

[pasayten]

by ed » Thu Aug 05, 2021 4:01 pm

Sorry, but a face shield is not a mask according to WA state regulations. The fact that the "no pictures" sign went up at the same time as the unenforced mask sign went up signaled to me I needed to be careful while shopping there.

"A mask or face covering is anything that completely covers your mouth and nose, and fits securely on the sides of your face and under your chin. It should be made of two or more layers of tightly woven fabric with ties or straps that go around your head or behind your ears. More protective coverings, such as masks or respirators may be required in the workplace.

Guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends strategies to improve mask fitting to more effectively slow the spread of COVID-19. These strategies include wearing a cloth mask over a medical procedure mask, knotting the ear loops of a medical procedure mask, using a mask fitter, or using a nylon covering over a mask. In addition, DOH does not recommend the use of masks with exhalation valves or vents, or single layer bandanas and gaiters. It is important to wear a mask in all public settings combined with continued implementation of effective public health measures such as vaccination, physical distancing, hand hygiene, and isolation and quarantine."

Source: https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/COVI ... ading44624

CDC says the same thing: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... dance.html (with pictures!)
Ed Menendez - Twisp

[pasayten]

by mr_coffee » Thu Aug 05, 2021 3:37 pm

Honestly there were a lot of people and businesses in the community who didn't exactly cover themselves in glory these past years. It isn't likely to help to call out Hank.

But I do think privately we can all make judgement calls and use our god-given brains to make the best decisions to keep ourselves and our families and friends alive.
David Bonn

[pasayten]

by Mark58 » Thu Aug 05, 2021 3:28 pm

We had a bubble with 4 couples last winter. There were written rules. One of the rules: no shopping at Hanks. It was generally recognized that mask wearing was not being enforced there. It has nothing to do with whether Hank is a nice guy or not.


Mark Miller

[pasayten]

by shan.kelleycisco » Thu Aug 05, 2021 3:11 pm

alfrandell wrote:
> sorry shan, but i checked Hanks throughout the winter myself.
> i saw Hank wearing a face shield, but never did i see him in a mask.
> there was a sign out front, but signs need enforcement.
> the sign at Hanks was joined by a second sign that said that photos may not
> be taken inside the building. when i entered after that sign went up, i
> found that very few people were masked.
> I used to love to shop at Hanks.
> i like how he bags groceries, and has such a great selection.
> But, i have had to split up with pretty much all of my anti masking and
> anti vaxing friends.
> Harming someone else is what you must not do.
> It is true that my statements can be taken as harmful in themselves.
> In fact, i do not assist my anti masking friends in any way.
> that includes buying things from them.
> i may try to warn a scrupulous and health conscious friend about going into
> certain buildings.
> needless to say, Hank can bar me from his store, and refuse to hire me, and
> buy a portable building from someone who he likes a whole lot better than
> he likes me.
>
> as far as the health disaster...
> there are not 10 cases in twisp.
> there are a lot more, and the number is doubling about every 11 days.
> masking mandates will be a little late with this kind of doubling rate.
>
> there are ballpark.... 30,000 flu deaths in the us, so last year, Covid
> carried away about 20 times that amount. I think that covid killed more
> than cancer and heart disease and car wrecks and terrorism.
> the CDC says that 350 million doses of vaccine have been given. many
> millions of infections and tens of thousands of death have been prevented.
> also, an epidemic has compound interest. it snowballs.
>
>
> 6490 have died after getting the jab. it is hard to figure out who died as
> a direct result. the j and j blood clots are the only well known ill
> effect. 70 years is of course, 70 * 24 = 1680 two week periods. so, 3.5 *
> 10^ 8 / 1.7 * 10^ 3 is............
>
> [you can do this in your head]
>
> 2 * 10 ^ (8-3) = 2 * 10 ^ 5 = 20,000
> so, if people die exactly 70 years from their day of birth, 20,000 die in
> every 2 week period.
> this calculation shows how hard it is to separate out the 1680 reported
> deaths from normal deaths during the 8 months of the vaccinations so far.
>
>
> I am amazed to hear people say that they are not worried in the slightest.
> I guess that there is room for worriers and also room for very, very
> confident folk.


alfrandell , I would recommend checking what qualified under the state mandate since it did whether the belief is that it did not. Its important to be accurate and is completely unfair for anyone to make assumptions or accusations as have been made here. Being a back seat driver is always pretty easy. Its okay to differ in opinions but not in the manner chosen. Please leave Hank out of further comments moving forward. He has done so much for the community and still is. It would seem this is more of a personal opinion regarding mask rather than factual. Have a good day.
Shan Kelley
Last edited by shan.kelleycisco on Thu Aug 05, 2021 5:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.

[pasayten]

by alfrandell » Thu Aug 05, 2021 1:42 pm

sorry shan, but i checked Hanks throughout the winter myself.
i saw Hank wearing a face shield, but never did i see him in a mask.
there was a sign out front, but signs need enforcement.
the sign at Hanks was joined by a second sign that said that photos may not be taken inside the building. when i entered after that sign went up, i found that very few people were masked.
I used to love to shop at Hanks.
i like how he bags groceries, and has such a great selection.
But, i have had to split up with pretty much all of my anti masking and anti vaxing friends.
Harming someone else is what you must not do.
It is true that my statements can be taken as harmful in themselves.
In fact, i do not assist my anti masking friends in any way.
that includes buying things from them.
i may try to warn a scrupulous and health conscious friend about going into certain buildings.
needless to say, Hank can bar me from his store, and refuse to hire me, and buy a portable building from someone who he likes a whole lot better than he likes me.

as far as the health disaster...
there are not 10 cases in twisp.
there are a lot more, and the number is doubling about every 11 days.
masking mandates will be a little late with this kind of doubling rate.

there are ballpark.... 30,000 flu deaths in the us, so last year, Covid carried away about 20 times that amount. I think that covid killed more than cancer and heart disease and car wrecks and terrorism.
the CDC says that 350 million doses of vaccine have been given. many millions of infections and tens of thousands of death have been prevented. also, an epidemic has compound interest. it snowballs.


6490 have died after getting the jab. it is hard to figure out who died as a direct result. the j and j blood clots are the only well known ill effect. 70 years is of course, 70 * 24 = 1680 two week periods. so, 3.5 * 10^ 8 / 1.7 * 10^ 3 is............

[you can do this in your head]

2 * 10 ^ (8-3) = 2 * 10 ^ 5 = 20,000
so, if people die exactly 70 years from their day of birth, 20,000 die in every 2 week period.
this calculation shows how hard it is to separate out the 1680 reported deaths from normal deaths during the 8 months of the vaccinations so far.


I am amazed to hear people say that they are not worried in the slightest.
I guess that there is room for worriers and also room for very, very confident folk.
Alf Randell
electronic mail - alfrandell@gmail.com
sms text
509 341 4053

[pasayten]

by mr_coffee » Thu Aug 05, 2021 1:09 pm

george wrote:
>> There are two other statistics I am interested in for comparison purposes:
> (1) Odds of dying from COVID vaccine; (2) Odds of dying from flu. Maybe you
> have done the research. I just have ballpark figures.

When I looked at CDC's mortality data for 2019 there were 49783 influenza deaths in 2019. This translates into your odds of dying of influenza in 2019 being about 1 in 6600. Figures from 2020 are harder to come by and unlikely to be decent comparisons, because since most of us masked and social distanced well in 2020 influenza deaths plummeted.

Odds of dying from a COVID vaccine? There are a couple of problems there. The first is that there are several different COVID vaccines and mixing them up doesn't tell you much. But the much bigger problem is that deaths due to the vaccines appear to be very rare, and rare enough that it is very hard to put an accurate number on the risk.

I can quote from a paper I found, "First Month of COVID-19 Vaccine Safety Monitoring — United States, December 14, 2020–January 13, 2021":

During December 14, 2020–January 13, 2021, a total of 13,794,904 COVID-19 vaccine doses were administered in the United States; 8,436,863 (61.2%) doses were administered to women. VAERS received 6,994 reports of COVID-19–associated adverse events during this period. Among all reports, 6,354 (90.8%) were classified as nonserious and 640 (9.2%) as serious, including 113 (1.6%) deaths.

So an upper bound on the risk of a COVID-19 vaccine is 113 out of 13794904, or about 1 out of 122000. But that is strictly an upper bound and the actual death rate is likely to be far lower. The mentioned paper also said that:

Among 19 persons whose deaths were reported to VAERS after receiving COVID-19 vaccine, record collection and evaluation are ongoing; for the remaining 16 reported deaths, review of death certificates or other data indicated underlying heart disease, cancer, stroke, probable pulmonary embolism, and otherwise frail health as the cause of death.

Keep in mind that in late December and early January most of the jabs were going to the oldest and most medically frail people, and it is reasonable to expect a substantially higher death rate in that population from all causes.

Also, the reason only 35 people are considered in the second quote is that all of the other deaths were amongst LTCF residents, who are also likely in frail health and many of whom may have died from other causes.

Having said all that, the fatality risk of the vaccines in the general population is probably a lot lower than that the figures above would imply, on the order of 1 out of 1000000. Because the apparent fatality rate is so small (and even 1 out of 122000 is pretty small) it is very challenging statistically to puzzle out which ones were due to the vaccine and which ones were due to other causes.
David Bonn

[pasayten]

by george » Thu Aug 05, 2021 12:40 pm

David,

Thanks for posting.

Your odds of dying from COVID-19 if you are vaccinated: 1 in 100,000
Your odds of dying from COVID-19 if you are not vaccinated: 1 in 550

Any questions? I have a question.

There are two other statistics I am interested in for comparison purposes: (1) Odds of dying from COVID vaccine; (2) Odds of dying from flu. Maybe you have done the research. I just have ballpark figures.
George Wooten
Twisp

[pasayten]

by shan.kelleycisco » Thu Aug 05, 2021 12:29 pm

alfrandell wrote:
> i was unwilling to start this thread after folks just created a post
> suggeting that we get out and mix the vaccinated and unvaccinated
> populations. The reason given was to help the local economy. we sure want
> to have places to eat and places to gather and have fun after this plague
> has been controlled. If we can not control it, we will not need much of
> anything.
>
> i had been watching in a worried fashion for the resperatory virus's next
> trick. i suspected that it would step up it's nasty attack on the lungs and
> the heart and the human mind, becoming more infectious by causing more
> severe cases. That would actually work to control the disease, because
> cases would be more apparent if most cases lead to the pnumonia.
>
> It did that, getting into the middle aged and young populations.But, the
> other thing that the virus learned to do is to make 1000 times more virus
> bodies to be broadcast by each host. This made it more infectious than
> chicken pox. Covid is now awesomely infectious. The protection offered by
> distancing, masks, and vaccines is a statistical shield. 95% freedom from
> hospitalization from the best 2 dose liquid. 80 to 90 % filtering of spit
> particles with a blue surgical mask depending on fit. 90 to 95% filtering
> with the n95, depending on filter age and fit.
>
> you can see how this much larger virus load is allowing more cases to get
> past masks and vaccines. Social distance must be increased to 12 or 18
> feet. A large influx of guests, in the form of firefighters, have been
> doing their heroic best to protect homes. But, they also brought the virus
> from all over. It looks like we will be the next Brewster around here. I
> would have to guess that the firefighters mixed quite thouroughly with the
> locals. Much better than the apple workers mixed with the other county
> residents.
>
> There are a lot more than 10 new cases in Twisp. It is possible that the
> majority of the unvaccinated are already hosts. this will almost surely be
> the heaviest wave of the disease. The new administration is doing really
> well in the fight against Covid, but never achieved any kind of vaccine
> coverage among the reds, who believe that it contains very small
> microchips, or causes the recipient to shed live virus's. Some think that
> the vaccine has side effects that are worse than catching the 'little flu'.
>
> When i go into thriftway, there are knots of people with their heads
> together, all unmasked and chatting it up. It is a party atmosphere. I can
> not imagine going into Hanks. Folks might be having group hugs or kisses.
> passing a lollypop around. Hank is proud that he never believed in Covid,
> and has never worn a mask or required masks or social distance between
> either staff or shoppers.
>
> you want economics? that is all that people care about any more. If this
> wave is anywhere near as bad as i estimate, we will loose up to 1% of our
> population. Our medical and economic systems would callapse in that case.
> Infected national guard would be throwing food near our mail boxes this
> winter, and services like snow plowing, and mail and electricity and food
> delivery would become unreliable.
>
> With all of the new residents, and the consequent loss of experienced
> mountain folk, the winter is likely to be much worse than this firestorm of
> a summer. Anyway, that is just my opinion. And i am nothing more than the
> fool on the hill!

Please be careful making statements especially when the opposite is true as it only serves to hurt people". " Hank is proud that he never believed in Covid, and has never worn a mask or required masks or social distance between either staff or shoppers."

Hank did in fact wear a mask for sometime. There was also a sign out front of the store advising of the mask requirement as well as distancing of 6 feet." It was also a state mandate for businesses.
Shan Kelley
Last edited by shan.kelleycisco on Thu Aug 05, 2021 5:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

[pasayten]

by RedRonda » Thu Aug 05, 2021 11:49 am

In a response to a question on FaceBook OK County Health provided the information that the recent cases in the Methow have been traced primarily to unvaccinated people who have traveled outside the area to attend events.

Ronda Bradeen

[pasayten]

by BobMacAAM » Thu Aug 05, 2021 10:30 am

None if is alarming in the slightest. Get yourself vaccinated and live your life. Don't live in fear people.

Bob

[pasayten]

by mr_coffee » Thu Aug 05, 2021 8:28 am

One thing to keep in mind is that what these new cases tell us is what happened in Twisp a week or two ago. The virus has had plenty of time to circulate between now and then and we are probably experiencing at many more cases by now.

Another thing to keep in mind is that as we learn more about vaccination, it is becoming very obvious that nearly all serious breakthrough cases (where someone ends up in the hospital) are amongst immunocompromised individuals. So if you are vaccinated and aren't immunocompromised you are very likely at little risk of serious illness. And given that the first cohorts who took the Pfizer vaccine did so about 11 months ago and are still closely watched, those of us who got vaccinated this year will have plenty of warning that we'll need a booster shot or that the vaccine has poor effectiveness against a new variant.

From what we understand about this disease, how our immune system works, and how the mRNA vaccines work, it is reasonable to expect that the Pfizer and Moderna shots will be fairly robust when confronted with variants. In all probability far more robust than natural immunity.

If you aren't vaccinated and haven't been previously infected, you are in a tough spot right now. If you don't take extraordinary precautions you will almost certainly be infected in the next couple of months. Given that the Pfizer vaccine takes two shots and six weeks from the first shot until full immunity, your situation is challenging and I hope you manage it well. Talk to your doctor.
David Bonn

[pasayten]

by alfrandell » Thu Aug 05, 2021 8:06 am

Emily, i appreciate your helpful tip.
i awake early, so i do usually go in to thriftway around opening, which is at 7.
i go once per week for about 12 minutes, and i distance and self check.
The employees know that if they come within 10 feet of me, i will abandon my cart and leave the store. Likewise, if i can not self check an item, i put it aside for reshelving. That has not happened since i learned advanced scanner technique, and how to key in codes manually when the scanner fails.

However, the firefighters are up at 5, so this does not work as expected.
i have not seen any masking among the crews, which is interesting, because new mandates for federal employees have been announced. Why do firefighters group themselves with anti maskers and anti vaxers? It is an interesting question! I would have thought that they would be most scrupulous in protecting the health of a fairly elderly population.
Alf Randell
electronic mail - alfrandell@gmail.com
sms text
509 341 4053

[pasayten]

by emily_sisson » Thu Aug 05, 2021 7:53 am

Alf—The way to avoid lots of people at Thriftway is to shop at about 8AM or even earlier. The early bird doesn’t catch the germ.

I don’t know about Hank’s. I’ve never shopped there first thing in the morning.
Emily Sisson

[pasayten]

by alfrandell » Thu Aug 05, 2021 7:29 am

i was unwilling to start this thread after folks just created a post suggeting that we get out and mix the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations. The reason given was to help the local economy. we sure want to have places to eat and places to gather and have fun after this plague has been controlled. If we can not control it, we will not need much of anything.

i had been watching in a worried fashion for the resperatory virus's next trick. i suspected that it would step up it's nasty attack on the lungs and the heart and the human mind, becoming more infectious by causing more severe cases. That would actually work to control the disease, because cases would be more apparent if most cases lead to the pnumonia.

It did that, getting into the middle aged and young populations.But, the other thing that the virus learned to do is to make 1000 times more virus bodies to be broadcast by each host. This made it more infectious than chicken pox. Covid is now awesomely infectious. The protection offered by distancing, masks, and vaccines is a statistical shield. 95% freedom from hospitalization from the best 2 dose liquid. 80 to 90 % filtering of spit particles with a blue surgical mask depending on fit. 90 to 95% filtering with the n95, depending on filter age and fit.

you can see how this much larger virus load is allowing more cases to get past masks and vaccines. Social distance must be increased to 12 or 18 feet. A large influx of guests, in the form of firefighters, have been doing their heroic best to protect homes. But, they also brought the virus from all over. It looks like we will be the next Brewster around here. I would have to guess that the firefighters mixed quite thouroughly with the locals. Much better than the apple workers mixed with the other county residents.

There are a lot more than 10 new cases in Twisp. It is possible that the majority of the unvaccinated are already hosts. this will almost surely be the heaviest wave of the disease. The new administration is doing really well in the fight against Covid, but never achieved any kind of vaccine coverage among the reds, who believe that it contains very small microchips, or causes the recipient to shed live virus's. Some think that the vaccine has side effects that are worse than catching the 'little flu'.

When i go into thriftway, there are knots of people with their heads together, all unmasked and chatting it up. It is a party atmosphere. I can not imagine going into Hanks. Folks might be having group hugs or kisses. passing a lollypop around. Hank is proud that he never believed in Covid, and has never worn a mask or required masks or social distance between either staff or shoppers.

you want economics? that is all that people care about any more. If this wave is anywhere near as bad as i estimate, we will loose up to 1% of our population. Our medical and economic systems would callapse in that case. Infected national guard would be throwing food near our mail boxes this winter, and services like snow plowing, and mail and electricity and food delivery would become unreliable.

With all of the new residents, and the consequent loss of experienced mountain folk, the winter is likely to be much worse than this firestorm of a summer. Anyway, that is just my opinion. And i am nothing more than the fool on the hill!
Alf Randell
electronic mail - alfrandell@gmail.com
sms text
509 341 4053

[pasayten]

by mr_coffee » Wed Aug 04, 2021 7:47 pm

Fun facts:

Your odds of dying from COVID-19 if you are vaccinated: 1 in 100,000
Your odds of dying from COVID-19 if you are not vaccinated: 1 in 550

Any questions?

Also, the newer variants all seem to make younger people sicker, and they get sicker faster. That's probably because most old folks had the mother wit to get vaccinated when they could.

Also, it looks like about a third of the people who get COVID have long-term health problems. These can range from very minor to serious lung, heart, and neurological problems. So just because it won't kill you doesn't mean you shouldn't be a bit concerned.
David Bonn

[pasayten]

by SonoraJane » Wed Aug 04, 2021 6:41 pm

Yes! This Delta variant is kicking our asses. If more people would get vaccinated it would help slow that train down. If not, it will just get worse.

Please folks, seriously consider getting vaccinated. It will most likely keep you from getting sick enough to need hospitalization or die.
Susan Finn
Twisp WA
Stay Safe, Social Distance
WEAR A MASK

[pasayten]

by RedRonda » Wed Aug 04, 2021 6:32 pm

I have taken the time to look at the recent numbers.
Twisp has had 10 cases in the last 14 days
Twisp has just under 1000 people
County has 50 cases in the last 14 days, Twisp has had 20% of those cases!
The county has 45,000 people
Twisp has 2.2% of the people in the county
THIS IS ALARMING
Yes our minds are on the fires and that threat is real. The threat of the Corona Virus is real. Very real and it is CLOSE TO HOME here in the Methow Valley and Twips in particular.
Vaccines make a difference. A HUGE difference,
The vast majority of cases are in the un vaccinated members of our community.
Getting a vaccine is private and confidential. Talk to your healthcare provider, any local clinic.
You do NOT have to be one of these horrid statistics that are now again overwhelming our health care systems.

Ronda Bradeen